Monday, October 4, 2010

IRAQ AT THE EDGE

.
With all eyes on the Khyber Pass, virtually everyone is missing THE story of DC's Bipartisan Post-9/11 Democracy Dementia. One single sentence in today's NY Times--
.
"Iraq's fate is at the tipping point."
.
Pronounced this day, October 4, 2010...
so much MORE than the most overlooked understatement of the year. Perhaps it would made it to the front page with--

"IRAQ's TORCH INCHES
FROM THE FUSE"

FOR THOSE OF YOU who still care about the CORE WAR and the KEY PLAYERS, the news all wrapped and spun a "Progress for the Parliament" is the "End of Everything."

I'll serve it all up in TWO versions--
#1- The super short Cliff Note version for the Tweet nation.
#2- The key conflicts, the players, and the Dogs of War gone rabid.

#1- The NY TIMES Reporting

From today's New York Times
Copyright October 4, 2010

News Analysis:
As Maliki Clings to Power,
Iraq’s Fissures Deepen


BAGHDAD — When Nuri Kamal al-Maliki began his bid for re-election as prime minister he pledged to unite a population splintered and suspicious after years of war. He has not, and while he is hardly alone in blame, the consequences could haunt Iraq for years to come.

Mr. Maliki secured the nomination for a second four-year term on Friday, but he did so with the support of many fellow Shiites, in particular the followers of a radical cleric, Moktada al-Sadr, who not long ago were involved in the fighting that plunged Iraq into civil war.

Mr. Maliki now has the support of at least 148 members of the new 325-seat Parliament, just short of a majority. With the support of the Kurds, who have 57 seats in all, he could easily form a government that excludes Sunnis almost entirely.

The challenge now is for Mr. Maliki to overcome the divisions and suspicions — among Sunnis, above all — that have dogged Iraq since its creation in 1920 under British rule, cobbled together out of disparate Ottoman provinces. Even though Mr. Maliki is all but assured of leading the next government, it could take weeks or months more for him to persuade the Sunnis to join the government in some way.

Among Iraq’s Sunnis the view is acute and disturbing, given the disenfranchisement that once provided Al Qaeda and other Sunni extremist groups succor. Baghdad was split, like the neighborhoods that even now are defined as either Sunni or Shiite, separated by checkpoints and blast walls.

In the Sunni quarters on Sunday, despair, anger and fear prevailed. A common view blamed Iran, Iraq’s Shiite neighbor, for orchestrating Shiite dominance of a multicultural nation. Many accused Mr. Maliki of resorting to political expedience to retain power, rather than exercising national leadership.

The sole Sunni in Mr. Maliki’s bloc, Hajim al-Hassani —said Sunday in an interview that Mr. Maliki intended to create a governing coalition that distributed posts in correlation to the percentage of votes. “We have to create an environment where there is no marginalization,” he said. “Iraq today is a democratic society. We must represent all Iraqis.”

The question is whether Mr. Maliki now can. The Association of Muslim Scholars in Iraq, a Sunni organization, said Mr. Maliki’s sectarianism was merely a reverse of the Sunni domination of Iraq under Mr. Hussein’s dictatorship.

“Iraq’s fate,” the organization said in a statement, “is at a tipping point.”


#2- The KD YORK forebodings

Since the March 2010 election, the Iraqi Parliament has met in session for a total of 18 minutes. It is because the FIVE factions have not been able to agree to team up to form a majority. The FIVE factions are-

MALIKI's-CORRUPT-SHIITES who are in power and close to USA...

AL*SADR's-MILITANT-SHIITES who are well-armed and close to Iran...
.
ALAWI's-SHIITE/SUNNI-BLEND with the Sunni's who will never be forgiven for being SADDAM's religion...

INDEPENDENT-SUNNIS-UNITED against everybody else seeking revenge...

KURDS-IN-KIRKUK where there's oil and the hills where they hide.

TODAY'S world-changing news is that MALIKI is joining with AL-SADR and they are ABOUT to form a genuine coalition with THE KURDS.

IFFFFFF that happens, EVERY SUNNI will see their enemies gathered in force. Driven by reasonable paranoia, SUNNIs will IMMEDIATELY leave the government, take up arms, and the Civil War is back with a vengeance.

The MYSTERY is how this "peace" has suddenly been made between ALAWI (America's Shiite) and AL-SADR (Iran's Shiite). The two have hated each other with a vicious contempt made nastier at every moment. And yet together, their political power is immense. But NOT enough to rule.

And so MYSTERY #2 is why THE KURDS are now promising to join ALAWI and AL-SADR. Together the three groups can dictate the nation's future... but WHY would they suddenly announce their intentions to form a coalition today, Oct 4?

Simple. But terrifying. Terrifyingly simple--
They all hate the Sunnis and agree to wipe them out.
MALAKI gets political power over ALL of Baghdad...IF the Sunni population, now 50%, are displaced, eliminated, or dead. AL-SADR gets a nation less-fearful of political alignment with Iran. And the KURDS, still angry at the Sunnis relocated by Saddam to Kurdish lands, the Kurds now have the green light to displace, eliminate or kill the Sunnis with no interference from the Shiite-controlled Army/Police.

The Sunnis see ALL of this coming and if today's coalition is officially finalized (perhaps Sunday, maybe sooner)...

...the Sunnis leave the government, go home to their hidden weapons, and all Hell breaks loose. And we've still got 50,000 spectators trapped, betrayed by America's Delusional Dream of Democracy under Penalty of Death.

2 comments:

  1. Excellent analysis. I wish I could find fault. I wish we had a different commander in chief. Sure wish Hilary was in there. She would at least recognize the dangers. I could go on, but for what? Post more often please.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thank you for an easy-to-understand analysis.
    I hope Bush is following your blog.

    ReplyDelete

Comments Welcome!